Is Your Transformation Dicing with Disaster? Find Out in Five Questions

Written by Gareth Williams | Aug 5, 2025 11:12:59 AM

The purpose of my work is to help people improve things with technology and to get the results they want from their technology investments.

For decision-makers responsible for strategic technology or business transformation, the cost of failure is high in terms of both investment and credibility. Yet organizations large and small struggle to convert great technology choices into real business value.

According to Boston Consulting Group, depending on complexity, 50-75% of major change efforts fail to realize intended results. Harvard Business Review says that two out of three transformation initiatives fail.

Wouldn't it be nice to know if we are on track for success or failure?

BCG has created a powerful framework that allows you to quickly score the chance of success of your current effort.

You can read about it at dice.bcg.com.

It helps you deal with complexity and prioritize critical risks to increase the chance of success.

Although the scoring method looks very simple... so simple that you can run a live calculation later in this article... it is based on BCG's study of many projects and so has a strong research base behind it. The team at BCG were awarded a patent for it in 2014.

The concepts behind DICE® are referenced in other program frameworks, such as Managing Successful Programmes, the framework on which I base my approach. DICE® is particularly elegant in that it gives you a predictive score based on only 4 simple elements, elements that spur conversation.

If you would like to check whether DICE® works, then think of a past program and enter the elements into the calculator below. Does it predict what actually happened?

The framework produces the DICE® score, an indicator of the likely success of a project based on various measures.

How to Calculate your DICE® Score

Element	Description	Range
Duration (D)	The total duration of short projects, or the time between two tranches on longer projects What are tranches?	< 2 months = 1 2-4 months = 2 4-8 months = 3 > 8 months = 4
Team performance integrity (I)	The project team's ability to execute successfully, with specific emphasis on the ability of the project leader	Very good = 1 Good = 2 Average = 3 Poor = 4
Commitment (Senior) (C1)	Visible backing from the sponsor and senior executives for the change	Clearly and strongly communicate the need = 1 Seem to want success = 2 Neutral = 3 Reluctant = 4
Commitment (Local) (C2)	Support from those who are impacted by the change	Eager = 1 Willing = 2 Reluctant = 3 Strongly Reluctant = 4
Effort (E)	How much effort will it require to implement (above and beyond business as usual) for the people undergoing the change (not the program team)	< 10% additional = 1 10-20% additional = 2 20-40% additional = 3 > 40 % additional = 4

Enter your estimates below to calculate your score

Duration (1-4):

Integrity (1-4):

Senior Commitment (1-4):

Local Commitment (1-4):

Effort (1-4):

DICE Score: 0

The score is calculated according to the following formula: D + (2 x I) + (2 x C1) + C2 + E

A score between 7 and 14 is in the "Win" Zone (very likely to succeed)
A score between 15 and 17 falls in the "Worry" Zone (hard to predict success)
A score higher than 17 falls in the "Woe" Zone (indicating high unpredictability or likely to not succeed)

What to do

If you are in the Win Zone then congratulations! Carry on.

If you are in the Worry or Woe Zones then you need to take some corrective actions. The DICE® framework itself implies the nature of the actions and you can play around with the live calculator to assess where you can make changes.

You can also go to https://dice.bcg.com/dice-faqs to get insight into actions you might take.

Really, the power of the framework is revealed in those moments: in the thinking about what is, what could be and what could not change to make things more successful.

If your organization is able to partner directly with BCG, you’ll have access to the creators of the DICE® framework and their extensive resources.

Alternatively, I can bring best-practice expertise directly to your team. As a dedicated, hands-on consultant, I work closely with you at every step. That gives you strategic insight, practical experience and deep value through focused attention that is right-sized for your organization.

If your assessment raises concerns or you’d like to explore how to improve your chances of success then let me help. We can talk through the results and possible changes. We can run a detailed Transformation Readiness Assessment to zoom in on areas that are creating risk and define objective actions to improve the chance of a successful outcome.

You can contact me on LinkedIn or via the form below.

Whatever you do, don't just roll the dice...

Best,
Gareth

DICE® is a registered trademark of Boston Consulting Group

I don't work for BCG. I'm just letting you know about their framework.

View full post